State Administration of Foreign Exchange: The so-called Chinese capital outflow has no data support

Abstract The emergence of fears that China large-scale cross-border capital outflow, China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange Division Wangyun Gui 26 responded that, from monitoring data, 1 year - in February of cross-border payments is still a large net inflow, "Singing the Chinese economy, asserting...
In response to concerns from outsiders about the large-scale outflow of cross-border funds in China, Wang Yungui, director of the Comprehensive Department of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China, responded on the 26th that from the monitoring data, cross-border revenue and expenditure in January-February this year is still a large net inflow, “ Singing the Chinese economy and asserting that capital outflows are not supported by data."

On the same day, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange held a press conference on the first quarter of 2015 in Beijing. Wang Yungui said when he answered questions from reporters at the meeting.

In the first two months of this year, China’s trade surplus reached RMB 737.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.6 times. In the same period, the bank's accumulated settlement and sales deficit was 155.8 billion yuan (equivalent to 25.4 billion US dollars). In this regard, there is a view that there has been a “large-scale outflow” of cross-border funds in China.

In this regard, Wang Yungui said, "it still needs to use data to speak." First, from August to December 2014, there was a certain net outflow of cross-border income and expenditure, that is, the situation of cross-border income and expenditure generated by enterprises and individuals through banks was less than the outflow. In January-February this year, this situation reversed. The net inflow after cross-border income minus cross-border expenditure was US$55.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38%. Among them, the net inflow of goods under the trade was US$44.9 billion, a year-on-year increase. 5.6 times. Therefore, from the monitoring data, cross-border revenue and expenditure is still a large net inflow.

Secondly, the bank's settlement and sales data showed a surplus of 25.4 billion foreign exchange settlements in January and February. It can be understood that the surplus or deficit of the foreign exchange settlement and sales is a structure between the central bank [microblogging] foreign exchange reserves and private foreign exchange savings. The adjustment of sex, that is, private enterprises and individuals are optimizing the currency structure of their balance sheets, and more increased the holding of dollar assets, rather than the outflow of funds.

Third, from the two basic terms of the balance of payments (trade and direct investment), the customs trade statistics of January-February trade was US$120.6 billion, up 11.8 times year-on-year; the actual use of foreign capital was US$22.5 billion, a year-on-year increase. 17%, the two totaled more than $140 billion.

"So, the basic data of the balance of payments does not support the outflow of related capital." Wang Yungui pointed out that based on the above three sets of data, China's GDP growth rate should be in a high-speed growth compared with the international situation, investment, consumption. Exports are still strong and powerful, and they have great potential. He stressed that overall, singing the Chinese economy and asserting that "capital outflow" is not supported by data. (Finish)

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