China's machine tool economic operation analysis report in the first quarter

Abstract In the fierce market competition, the contradiction between industrial structure, product structure and market demand of machine tool industry has been improved, but it has not been effectively alleviated. The demand for domestic low-end products has been greatly reduced, and the demand for medium and high-end machine tools has slowly increased. After the financial crisis, imports showed double-digit negative growth for the first time...
In the fierce market competition, the contradiction between the industrial structure, product structure and market demand of the machine tool industry has been improved, but it has not been effectively alleviated. The demand for domestic low-end products has been greatly reduced, and the demand for medium and high-end machine tools has slowly increased. After the financial crisis, imports experienced double-digit negative growth for the first time, but due to the large base, the import volume is still at a high level. The international market continued to show different degrees of recovery, and the export of machine tool products continued to decline after the growth rate in 2012.

I. Completion of major economic indicators and import and export statistics for the industry from January to March

1. Major economic indicators of the statistical caliber industry of the State Administration of Taxation

(1) Machine tool industry


According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, (from the first quarter of 2013, the National Bureau of Statistics will no longer provide indicators such as the total industrial output value, sales value, production and sales rate, and production of CNC machine tools in the machine tool industry.)

The machine tool industry achieved a total sales revenue of 165.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%.

The machine tool industry achieved a profit of 8.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 0.7%.

In the current period, the cumulative value of fixed assets investment in the machine tool industry increased by 19.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points over the same period in 2012.

(2) Gold cutting machine tool industry

Jinchee machine tool industry achieved sales revenue of 30.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%.

The gold cutting machine tool industry realized a profit of 700 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 480 million yuan.

The output of gold cutting machine tools was 172,303 units, of which the output of CNC machine tools reached 40,328 units, which increased by -9.3% and -13.7% respectively over the same period.

(3) Forming machine tool industry

The sales volume of the forming machine tool industry reached 14.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%.

The forming machine tool industry realized a profit of 810 million yuan, an increase of 130 million yuan.

The output of forming machine tools was 41,689 units, a year-on-year increase of -14.3%.

2. Focus on the completion of the main economic indicators of the company's statistical caliber

A total of 220 key enterprises are involved, involving 8 small industries, with a focus on the main business of the machine tool industry. The statistical results are quite different from the industry trends reflected by the industry data of 5168 companies in 8 small industries counted by the National Bureau of Statistics. .

The key enterprises contacted the industrial output value to increase by -5.6% year-on-year; the product sales revenue decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, of which the sales revenue in March increased by 4.6% year-on-year and 54.0% quarter-on-quarter.

The output value of Jinqie machine tool increased by -12.1% year-on-year, of which the output value of CNC metal cutting machine tool increased by -4.4%. Jinchee machine tool product sales revenue increased by -2.8%. The output of gold cutting machine tools increased by -20.4% year-on-year, of which CNC cutting output increased by -6.3%.

The output value of forming machine tools increased by -5.1% year-on-year, of which the output value of CNC forming machine tools increased by -0.1%. The sales revenue of forming machine tool products increased by -4.4% year-on-year. The output increased by -24.9% year-on-year, of which the output of CNC forming machine tools increased by -7.8%.

Rolling functional components and machine tool accessories, the two small industries, the total industrial output value fell the most, with a year-on-year growth of -30.2% and -28.1%, respectively, their sales revenue increased by -18.6% and -24.2%, respectively; machine tool electrical appliances and cutting tools small industry The output value increased by -8.0% and -3.4% respectively, and the sales revenue of its products increased by -11.1% and -4.8% respectively; the output value of small-scale CNC system increased by 2.6%, and the sales revenue of products increased by -18.5%; the super-hard materials industry The growth was outstanding, the output value increased by 21.7% year-on-year, and the revenue increased by 21.1%.

3. Import and export of machine tool products

The cumulative import of machine tool products was US$4.05 billion, a year-on-year increase of -13.5%. Among them, metal processing machine tools imported 2.70 billion US dollars, an increase of -14.5%. Among metal processing machines, Jinqiu machine tools imported 2.15 billion US dollars, up -15.2% year-on-year; forming machine tools imported 550 million US dollars, an increase of -11.8%.

The export of machine tool products was US$2.09 billion, up 0.3% year-on-year; the export of metal processing machine tools was US$680 million, up 7.6% year-on-year. Among metal processing machines, Jinqiu machine exports reached US$410 million, up 4.5% year-on-year; and forming machine tools exported US$260 million, up 34.1% year-on-year.

Second, the characteristics of the economic operation of the industry

1. The running trend basically stops falling and stabilizes

According to surveys conducted by some enterprises, most of the mainframe factories have their common points in the first quarter, that is, the situation in January and February is poor. In mid-March, the mid-range machine tools have improved, the low-end products have recovered slightly, and the heavy-duty machine tools have fallen sharply. Although the market outlook is uncertain, positive factors such as investment have shown signs of market decline.

New orders from key contact companies (partially) show that new orders have been negative for 22 consecutive months as of March, but the decline has narrowed rapidly from the previous double digits to 1.8%; the decline in orders at the end of March was 17.3%, but also narrowed. From this, it can be initially judged that the market has basically stabilized, but it is still necessary to observe whether it can steadily rise.

2. Market demand is rapidly escalating, and structural contradictions are increasingly prominent

In recent years, the pace of upgrading the manufacturing industry has accelerated, but the problems of the industry and product structure of our industry that do not adapt to market demand have become increasingly prominent. Mainly reflected in: new requirements for different user areas are not competent. For example: a new round of equipment upgrades brought by the new internal combustion engine emission standards; aerospace, high-end equipment and special equipment in the military industry; automated complete solutions in the field of general machinery, most companies face this market demand But it is not enough. There are three main factors: First, the competitiveness of medium and high-end products is weak; second, the structure of production capacity and market demand structure are unbalanced; third, the industrial chain is incomplete.

3. Import growth rate declines, but the absolute value is still at a high level

Despite the negative growth in imports, the absolute value of imports is still at a high level due to the large base.

There are three reasons for negative import growth:

First, the lag effect of imported machine tools on the market low point. In 2012, the domestic machine tool industry's operating trend was first high and then low. Take the gold cutting machine tool industry as an example: from April to September, the output value has been at the bottom, which also reflects the low demand in the domestic market. Imported machine tools generally have a supply cycle of more than half a year. Therefore, since the fourth quarter of 2012, machine tool imports have entered a downward channel. Therefore, the import volume of machine tools in the first quarter of 2013 showed a negative growth, reflecting the downturn in the market.

Second, the upgrading of user industry has driven demand to high-end products, but the overall market decline has reduced the import of mid-range machine tools, which account for a large proportion of imports. The import value of metal processing machine tools shows that the average unit price of China's machine tool imports increased by US$5,526 in the first quarter; the import value of machine tools from Germany and the United States increased by more than 20% year-on-year; while the value of imported machine tools from South Korea decreased by 40% year-on-year, Japan decreased by 34%, China The Taiwan region has decreased by 26%. The overall market structure change is the main reason for the decline in imports from South Korea and Taiwan, represented by mid-range machine tools. But there may be other factors as the rapid decline in imports from Japan.

Third, due to the downturn in the domestic market, the use of parts and tools decreased. China's machine tool industry itself needs to import imports of functional components and parts and components by 22% year-on-year; imports of cutting tools as consumables fell slightly by 1% year-on-year.

4. Export growth continues to decline

China's machine tool export growth rate has been clearly in the downward channel since the beginning of 2012, and it is difficult to have an optimistic estimate for the whole year of 2013. The positive growth in the first three months was largely due to the export of large-scale forming machine tools and was not sustainable. In addition, the export of gold cutting machine tools has been negatively increased, and the unit price has also decreased.

It is worth noting that the main export of CNC metalworking machine tools with high added value is foreign-funded enterprises, the share is close to 40%, and the average unit price of exports is 2.6 times the overall average price.
In the export market, the United States grew by 68.2% year-on-year. Russia also has a good performance. After the rapid growth in 2012 in Mexico and Venezuela in Latin America, the momentum in 2013 has not diminished and has doubled. Machine tools that are growing faster in the above regions are mainly forming machine tools.

Third, the difficulties and problems faced

1. The domestic high-end machine tool market needs further training


The market demand for low-end machine tools has shrunk for two years. Most companies have increased the intensity of product structure adjustments, and introduced medium-to-high-end products and production line products that are suitable for efficient production, but most of them failed to enter the market in batches. The influence of local enterprise brands is not strong, the understanding of high-end user processes is not deep, and the service effect has not been improved through modern service means, which makes it difficult for domestic high-end machine tools to form mature products. Therefore, how to make good use of policies and market guidance to make the product development mechanism of enterprises enter a virtuous circle is a top priority and help the medium and high-end machine tools to enter the market.

2. The machine tool industry must grow with the major user industry

Throughout the history of the development of the machine tool industry in Germany, Japan and South Korea, it has risen in tandem with the automotive industry. The processing of key components such as automobile engines and gearboxes in China's automobile industry is an imported foreign production line. China's machine tool industry has not been greatly improved by the rapid development of the automotive industry. Therefore, although the automobile is the largest user industry of machine tools, in fact, the core field has been mainly occupied by imported products.

The introduction of new emission standards means a new round of industrial upgrading and investment in new equipment. Our industry enterprises must keep up with the new demands of the user field, focus on the best resources of the enterprise and even the industry, catch up with the development pace of users, and achieve common growth with the user industry, thereby expanding market share.

3. The prices of parts purchased by mainland enterprises are higher than those of Taiwan and South Korea, affecting the competitiveness of mainland mid-end products.

Due to the low level of industrialization of mainland enterprises, the small amount of disposable parts purchased, and the dealers controlling prices, the purchase price of mainland enterprises is higher than that of Taiwan, regardless of whether they import parts from Europe, America or Japan or parts from Taiwan. Korean companies are 20% to 30%. This makes the price of the domestic machine tool not only has no advantage, but also has a higher trend than the Taiwan and South Korea machine tools.

If mainland companies cannot effectively solve the purchase price of parts and components, we will have no price advantage as the labor costs in the mainland rise. And because the profit margins of enterprises vary greatly, it is difficult for us to enter a virtuous cycle, and the gap will become larger and larger. The increase in domestic labor costs and the increase in production costs caused by the appreciation of the renminbi have led to a gradual weakening of the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises.

Since the implementation of the ECFA “early harvest list” for two years, tax-reduction products such as CNC lathes and CNC surface grinders have had a great impact on industry companies. Taiwan's machine tool industry targets the mid-end product market with the largest market demand. Through a high degree of social cooperation, the overall level of industrialization level, service capability and market development capability, especially the international channel laying ability, is higher than that of the mainland. In the mainland market, products that are not included in the “early harvest list”, the land price difference is not obvious under the relevant tax conditions. In overseas markets, similar products on the mainland are difficult to compete with Taiwan.

Fourth, summary

In the first quarter, the industry trend and market demand can be seen that the demand of the middle and high-end market, especially the aerospace, railway, automobile and other industries, is more obvious to the high-end product market; due to the industrial structure and product structure characteristics of the industry, the low-end products of the industry Overcapacity is still more serious; although the market information volume has begun to increase, it will take time to truly achieve sales. Although it can be seen that the downward trend of the industry's economic operation has already stabilized, the market outlook is not clear.

The price of polysilicon and silicon wafers is falling, and the components are still rising.

This week, the price of polysilicon and wafers ended the downward trend in a month, which was the same as last week's price. The price of downstream battery chips began to weaken, and the price of components remained firm, rising by 0.27%.

The price of polysilicon material is basically stable this week. Most manufacturers hope that domestic policy support will be strong, and the price increase is expected to be strong. Therefore, the transaction price is firm, but the actual transaction volume is small. It is expected that the price increase will be small and the price will remain for a period of time. Smooth.

This week, the price of silicon wafers was stable overall. At the beginning of this week, due to the impact of the EU's double-reverse proximity, the overall demand for silicon wafers was slightly reduced. Some of the manufacturers that maintain old customers are relatively stable. Most manufacturers still use them for their own use or foundry. Mainly, small and medium-sized enterprises have stopped production. Although the recent EU double reverse preliminary ruling results are better than expected, according to some silicon wafer companies, the demand situation is still not good, but due to the influence of silicon materials, it is expected that the price of silicon wafers will also be keep stable.

The price of battery chips began to weaken this week. The price of polycrystalline silicon cells fell by 0.24%, and the price of monocrystalline silicon cells fell by 0.17%. Although the results of the EU double tax rate were announced this week, the market recovered slightly, and the number of respondents who responded to the inquiry. It is increasing, but there is not much improvement in actual transactions.

The price of components rose slightly this week, compared with 0.27% last week. At present, except for the European market, the other markets generally have good shipments, and the payment methods are better, and the orders are more concentrated to the dominant enterprises, and most of the small enterprises are underemployed. The business encountered great difficulties.

The EU announced that it will impose a temporary anti-dumping duty of 11.8% on solar panels and key components produced in China from June 6. If the solution is not reached by August 6, the anti-dumping tax rate will rise to 47.6%.

The outcome of the European Commission's ruling is better than the market's expectation of the preliminary ruling. The actual change is that the European Commission, which had a very strong attitude, made substantial concessions, making the probability of reconciliation between China and the EU greatly during the two-month negotiation period. increase. It is a major positive for the domestic PV industry. At present, we speculate that the more likely settlement is to limit the total export quota and the price commitment of Chinese enterprises. If a settlement agreement is reached, the long-term impact of domestic PV companies will gradually weaken. Although the "double opposition" in Europe is developing in a good direction, there is still uncertainty about whether China and the EU can reach a settlement within the two-month buffer period.

It is expected that the introduction of policy rules such as photovoltaic power generation subsidy standards and years will not be affected. We maintain the expectation of 10GW of new installed capacity in China and continue to recommend solar power. In addition, the transformation of domestic subsidies and the strong demand in Japan are good for single crystal products.

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